Iran Vs Israel - What could happen if Israel goes in war with Iran in 2012?

Iran also called The Islamic Revolution of Iran has recently been in a lot of controversy regarding it’s Nuclear program in the quest for Nuclear Energy. However, the U.S has passed down many economic sanctions to stop Iran’s effort to achieve Nuclear Energy as it believes that a Nuclear power country in Middle East would be a threat to worldwide peace and security. Matters got worse after President of Iran, Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that the destruction of Israel was near. As to now, all the diplomatic solutions against Iran have failed. Iran has threatened that if the west tried to threaten its national security, it would cease the Strait of Hormuz, through which world’s 40% oil trade is done. On the other side Israel has warned that if nothing is done by the end of 2012, it will attack Iran.

                                                       

Let’s analyze as to what possible strategic moves could these countries make and what could be the outcome in terms of alliance, military power and technology.

Iran (Islamic revolution of Iran)

Iran has advanced its military in great deal in the past recent years. It has strengthened its alliance with Russia and China who are the major suppliers of surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missile systems. Iran conducted its highest number of aerial and navy defense drills this year. Iran’s military successfully test fired its mid-range Ballistic missiles which are capable of causing immense damage to its enemies in the region. Its destroyers such as the Jamaran are equipped with modern radars and electronic warfare capabilities. Moreover, in 2012, Iran upgraded a lot of its own missiles, the most recent being the Fateh 110 short range ballistic missile, which has its reach over the gulf and sea of Oman. Earlier this year, Iran successfully test fired its long range ballistic missile capable of carrying Nuclear War head, whose range includes Israel, parts of Europe and all U.S allies in the Middle East.

Israel

Israel on the other hand has experienced a lot of warfare against its country since its creation. It is believed to have had nuclear power though it has never clearly stated it. It has advanced its military with high technology and modern warfare weapons with the help of the United States and the western countries. It’s alliance with the US is one of key factors which provides Israel a tremendous edge.

Do we really need a war?

The CIA (US intelligence) has declared that there is no threat of Iran having a nuclear bomb. And so have the rest of the top intelligence across the globe. Many argue that it is Israel that wants to go on war with Iran, and later let the Americans do the dirty job by finishing the Iranian army. However, looking at all the news channels and reports across the world, there is no need for a war to happen against Iran.

The War

If Israel attacks Iran, the whole world would break out into chaos. Any attack on Iran would cause a retaliation from Iran. The foremost step of Iran would be to close the Strait of Hormuz to cut down the oil trade which would cause a huge inflation of oil prices worldwide. Most likely, just as the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia might overproduce oil which in turn might force Iran to attack the oil refineries in the Middle East which could cause a havoc and utter economic collapse in the world.

                               

 The next step would be that U.S would join the war and side with Israel. But, it doesn’t actually seem to be that easy for Israel as it appears to be. It would require ‘time’ for the U.S troops to be deployed in Israel. In that time, Iran does have the capability to strike Israel really hard. For the Israel to cause air strikes over Iran, it would have to cross over the air space of either Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia or Turkey, all of which hate the presence of the State of Israel in Middle East. The Israeli air force would also have to re-fuel in mid air as the trip back and forth to Israel is more than 3000 KM, again, always with the fear that other Gulf countries would strike down its planes. Next, a war with Israel would gain immense support for Iran in the Middle East. Iran could also get fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran also has the most number of Muslim Shiite group who are also scattered around the Middle East. The war in turn would cause uprising and rebellion in all over the Middle East. With the Shahab III missiles (capable of carrying Nuclear Warheads), Iran can target all of the U.S allies in the Middle East. Iraq in the long run would also in turn side with Iran due to its hatred against the U.S.

The U.S Army

               Once, the US arrives in Israel and the Middle east, there is no doubt that the world’s most powerful country will beat down Iran very hard. But looking at Iran’s current preparation for a war and its history of warfare, Iran would definitely give U.S a real tough time. It’s geological and strategic position on the globe would prove to be a major factor for its resistance and maybe even its victory against the U.S.

Whatever be the case, if the war happens, it would effect the world’s economy so bad, that it might take years for it to recover. All we could hope is that the war never starts...

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